Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Correlation of cadmium distribution coefficients to soil characteristics

Cadmium (Cd) distribution between the soil solid phase and the soil solution is a key issue in assessing the environmental effect of Cd in the terrestrial environmental. Previous studies have shown that many individual minerals and other components found in soils can bind Cd, but most studies on whole soil samples have shown that pH is the main parameter controlling the distribution. To identify further the components that are important for Cd binding in soil we measured Cd distribution coefficients (Kd) at two fixed pH values and at low Cd loadings for 49 soils sampled in Denmark. The Kd values for Cd ranged from 5 to 3000 L kg(-1). The soils were described pedologically and characterized in detail (22 parameters) including determination of contents of the various minerals in the clay fraction. Correlating parameters were grouped and step-wise regression analysis revealed that the organic carbon content was a significant variable at both pH values. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and gibbsite were important at the low pH (5.3) while iron oxides also were important at the high pH (6.7). None of the other clay minerals present in the soils (illite, smectite, kaolinite, hydroxy interlayered clay minerals [HIM], chlorite, quartz, microcline, plagioclase) were significant in explaining the Cd distribution coefficient.     

Synchronous variation in water chemistry for 80 lakes in Southern Sweden

Variation in water chemistry was studied in 80 lakes in southern Sweden. The lakes had forest dominated catchments. The length of the time series was 14 years. Synchrony was calculated as Pearsons product moment correlation coefficients for all combinations of lakes, i.e. 3160 lake-pairs. The chemical variables studied were non-marine sulphate (SO₄ ^*), non-marine calcium (Ca^*), absorbance and acid neutralising capacity (ANC). Statistically significant synchrony occurred in 93% of all lake-pairs for SO₄ ^*, and between 58 and 67% for absorbance, Ca^* and ANC. In 70% of all lake-pairs, the synchrony was \s>0.71 for SO₄ ^*, which means that more than half of the variation in one lake could be explained by the variation in the other lake. For absorbance, Ca^* and ANC, about 25% of the lake-pairs had a synchrony \s>0.71. The relatively high synchrony for SO₄ ^* occurred during an overall downward trend in SO₄ ^* concentration.The degree of synchrony in our study was at a level comparable to other studies in northern America and England. However, our study included lakes in a much larger area, with distances of up to 500 km between the lakes, while earlier studies were made on small lake districts with lakes located within approximately 50 km. In contrast to these earlier studies, there was no correlation between synchrony and distance, lake characteristics or catchment characteristics. However, when a small subset of 15 lakes in the southeast of Sweden was selected, such relations were found.     

Analysis of river water samples utilising a prototype industrial sensing system for phosphorus based on micro-system technology

The application of a phosphorus monitoring device based on microsystems technology (MST) to the analysis of river water is presented. An alternative to the standard molybdenum blue method known as the yellow vanadomolybdophosphoric acid method has been very effectively implemented. The method is simple, a reagent and sample are mixed in a 1:1 ratio forming a yellow complex that absorbs strongly below 400 nm in the UV spectrum. The kinetics of the reaction are rapid and sample turnaround is typically 3 min at room temperature. Therefore a very uncomplicated microfluidic design can be adopted. The working wavelength was chosen as 380 nm to coincide with the peak output of a UV-LED narrow bandwidth light source recently developed by Nichia. The limit of detection for the yellow method in the microfluidic system is 0.2 ppm with a dynamic linear range from 0-50 ppm. The method was applied to a measurement of phosphorus in a local river at specific sampling points along its course.     

Vision complements echolocation in an aerial-hawking bat

The northern bat Eptesicus nilssonii normally hunts flying insects in the air using frequency-modulated echolocation calls. It is also known to detect and catch visually conspicuous prey (white moths) hovering low among grass stalks. To overcome the problem with acoustic clutter from the grass, which interferes with target echo detection, the bats make use of visual cues in addition to those of echolocation. We therefore investigated the minimum size of prey that the bats could distinguish by using vision, by presenting the bats with different sized dead and spread moths. We found that vision increased the chance of detection only when the moths had a wingspan of at least 5 cm. Smaller targets were detected using echolocation alone. The mean detection range was 3.5 m, suggesting that the bats need a visual acuity of 49 of arc to detect the prey. This is consistent with results of optomotor response tests and counts of retinal ganglion cells in closely related species. Our results suggest that the visual acuity of Eptesicus bats may not be adequate for prey detection under normal conditions, but that the bats can use vision when the prey is unusually large and conspicuous. The northern bats display a flexibility in prey detection techniques not previously recognised among aerial-hawking bats and they are able to use their full visual capacity in the field.     

A method for quick assessment of CO2 storage capacity in closed and semi-closed saline formations

Saline aquifers of high permeability bounded by overlying/underlying seals may be surrounded laterally by low-permeability zones, possibly caused by natural heterogeneity and/or faulting. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) injection into and storage in such “closed” systems with impervious seals, or “semi-closed” systems with non-ideal (low permeability) seals, is different from that in “open” systems, from which the displaced brine can easily escape laterally. In closed or semi-closed systems, the pressure buildup caused by continuous industrial-scale CO₂ injection may have a limiting effect on CO₂ storage capacity, because geomechanical damage caused by overpressure needs to be avoided. In this research, a simple analytical method was developed for the quick assessment of the CO₂ storage capacity in such closed and semi-closed systems. This quick-assessment method is based on the fact that native brine (of an equivalent volume) displaced by the cumulative injected CO₂ occupies additional pore volume within the storage formation and the seals, provided by pore and brine compressibility in response to pressure buildup. With non-ideal seals, brine may also leak through the seals into overlying/underlying formations. The quick-assessment method calculates these brine displacement contributions in response to an estimated average pressure buildup in the storage reservoir. The CO₂ storage capacity and the transient domain-averaged pressure buildup estimated through the quick-assessment method were compared with the “true” values obtained using detailed numerical simulations of CO₂ and brine transport in a two-dimensional radial system. The good agreement indicates that the proposed method can produce reasonable approximations for storage–formation–seal systems of various geometric and hydrogeological properties.     

Conceptual development of a harmonised method for tracking change and evaluating policy in the agri-environment: The Agri-environmental Footprint Index

An aggregated farm-level index, the Agri-environmental Footprint Index (AFI), based on multiple criteria methods and representing a harmonised approach to evaluation of EU agri-environmental schemes is described. The Index uses a common framework for the design and evaluation of policy that can be customised to locally relevant agri-environmental issues and circumstances. Evaluation can be strictly policy-focused, or broader and more holistic in that context-relevant assessment criteria that are not necessarily considered in the evaluated policy can nevertheless be incorporated. The Index structure is flexible, and can respond to diverse local needs. The process of Index construction is interactive, engaging farmers and other relevant stakeholders in a transparent decision-making process that can ensure acceptance of the outcome, help to forge an improved understanding of local agri-environmental priorities and potentially increase awareness of the critical role of farmers in environmental management. The structure of the AFI facilitates post-evaluation analysis of relative performance in different dimensions of the agri-environment, permitting identification of current strengths and weaknesses, and enabling future improvement in policy design. Quantification of the environmental impact of agriculture beyond the stated aims of policy using an ‘unweighted’ form of the AFI has potential as the basis of an ongoing system of environmental audit within a specified agricultural context.     

Relationship between the position preference and nutritional state of individuals in schools of juvenile roach (Rutilus rutilus)

Summary Position preferences of well-fed and food-deprived juvenile roach were investigated in schools of 2 and 4 fish in the laboratory. Food-deprived fish appeared significantly more often in the front position than their well-fed conspecifics. For fish at the same hunger level, individuals at the front of the school had the highest feeding rate. These results represent the first evidence for a relationship between the nutritional state of individual fish and their positions in a school and suggest a functional advantage of the preference. Offprint requests to: J. Krause at the present address